Thursday, 24 November 2016

The Trump Identity: So what is Trump really going to do?

So what is Trump going to do? He has said a great deal during the campaign, which is his true "identity" as a policy maker. Let's look beyond the gimmicks and his vast political in-corrections.

Let's look into some policy areas:

He may appoint one or two fairly conservative Supreme Court judges. Is he going to change the status of issues such as abortion and gay marriage? There can be future implications by SC rulings. Only he knows, maybe even he has not made up his mind yet.

He will probably pursue government investment in infrastructure and show low preference for government-centered money redistribution schemes like entitlements and ObamaCare.

 Trump is an isolationist based on his rhetoric. That means military and trade implications, even more so if an economic recession hits. For one thing, it looks like fewer US troops will be operating on foreign lands. How is that going to affect NATO? Europeans may have to find ways of defending themselves, via NATO or other forms (EU army).

Trade. He has already announced he is pulling the US out of the Trans Pacific Partnership. What will happen to NAFTA? Is he going to revoke other US trade deals? Is he going to break any WTO rules by offering incentives for US companies to move factories back in the US? He has already spoken with Apple's CEO urging him to open big plants in the US. Keep in mind that to impose trade sanctions a country must first appeal to the WTO.

He may attempt regulatory changes, especially in the energy, transportation and heavy industry sectors. Many will have negative implications to pollution but positive implications to the US economy and employment.

Trump's biggest challenges will be managing the defense budget and the interest on the massive US debt vis-à-vis his ambitions for job creation and the Congress’ funding preferences. Pentagon may wind up being on the losing end.

Will he attempt a tax overhaul? Readers of his tax plan with just three tax brackets claim he may leave many low incomes worse off.

Some form of the wall on the Mexican border will happen, mostly as an expansion of the existing portions. The deportation of illegal residents will see a boost, mostly targeting criminals, human traffickers and drug operatives or will he expand his scope?

The US president does not decide alone, he needs the House and the Senate to vote along.

 But what is probably the "scariest" factor is that he does not seem to be bound by the negotiations' constraints politicians normally have. But he is no Jason Borne.
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